REFERENCE: The Final Battle (Part II)
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NARRATIVE
The Russian Empty Chair
- https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63086767
- His seven-month war is losing impetus while Ukraine's dramatic counter-offensive is derailing his original claim to the two eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk ... By annexing the eastern regions as well as Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in the south he will be able to send newly mobilised troops to a front line that Moscow says is more than 1,000km (620 miles) long.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_occupation_of_Kherson_Oblast
- In October 2022, as Ukraine's 2022 Kherson counteroffensive approached the city of Kherson itself, the Russian administration's executive bodies evacuated from Kherson to the left bank of the Dnieper River. They set up a new administrative centre in Henichesk, in the far south of the Kherson region. Throughout early November 2022, Russian forces fully withdrew from all the areas of Kherson and Mykolaiv regions on the right bank of the Dnieper, including the city of Kherson proper. Ukrainian forces entered the city of Kherson on 11 November. According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, the Kherson region remained a "subject of the Russian Federation" despite the withdrawal.
The Ukrainian Final Battle
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_war
- Total war is a type of warfare that includes any and all civilian-associated resources and infrastructure as legitimate military targets, mobilises all of the resources of society to fight the war, and gives priority to warfare over non-combatant needs.
- https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-faces-an-acute-manpower-shortage-with-young-men-dodging-the-draft/
- Moscow’s troop strength inside Ukraine currently exceeds 400,000 soldiers, with another 100,000 near Ukrainian territory. Overall Kyiv has around 680,000 active military personnel with around 200,000 on the frontlines; Russia, meanwhile, has 1.2 million, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Ukrainian army general staff said last year they feared Russia could be considering mobilizing 400,000 to 700,000 additional troops.
- https://english.nv.ua/russian-war/ukraine-s-military-becomes-largest-in-europe-with-980-000-troops-zelenskyy-says-50479343.html
- Ukraine's Defense Forces are now the largest in Europe, with 980,000 personnel, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an interview with American podcaster Lex Fridman on Jan. 6 (2025).
- https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-anniversary-russia-putin-zelensky-casualties-map-drones-b2703340.html
- Russia’s army was last estimated at 1.5 million people, according to orders to increase troop numbers from President Putin in September. President Zelensky said in January that 600,000 Russian troops are in Ukraine.
- https://www.newsweek.com/zelensky-reveals-number-ukraine-troops-fighting-russia-1851675
- In a Telegram post congratulating his country's troops for Ground Forces Day which is marked on December 12 (2023), the Ukrainian president said that there were nearly 600,000 soldiers "of various branches of the military."
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_law_in_Ukraine
- Modern-day martial law has been introduced two times in Ukraine; in 2018 for 30 days and an ongoing one since 24 February 2022 in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine that started on 24 February 2022.
The Crimean Invasion
- https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68528761
- Ukrainian sea drones have revolutionised naval warfare over the last few years, relentlessly hunting down Russian ships in the open sea and even at naval bases ... Since it was set up last year, the (Group-13, a secretive unit of Ukraine's military intelligence agency) says it has sunk five Russian vessels and damaged others.
- https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-strikes-back-drones-turn-the-tables-on-russian-silok-jammers/ar-BB1h37jl
- In a striking display of tactical ingenuity, Ukrainian forces have been successfully using drones to hunt and destroy Russian electronic warfare systems, specifically the Silok jammers meant to ground Ukrainian drones.
- https://maps.app.goo.gl/y9TvdZUUEDsnyTGu9
- 90 mi - distance between the City of Perekop and the Chernomorskoe settlement, several miles north of Cape Priboiny.
- https://www.bhphotovideo.com/explora/video/features/what-is-an-fpv-drone
- As opposed to the traditional method of drone piloting, wherein the pilot controls the aircraft from their perspective on the ground, FPV drones are piloted from the drone’s point of view (i.e., the onboard camera). In other words, you’ll be flying the drone from the perspective of someone who is actually on board.
- https://www.businessinsider.com/inflatable-decoys-tanks-ukraine-russia-2023-9
- Recent videos appear to show inflatable tank decoys being used on the battlefield in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Dynamics_F-16_Fighting_Falcon#Operators
- On 20 August 2023, Denmark and the Netherlands announced the joint transfer of up to 61 F-16s to the Ukrainian Air Force. Four days later, Norway announced the donation of 5–10 aircraft, depending on how many can be made operational. In January 2024, the Netherlands announced the transfer of another 6 F-16s, bringing the total which will be donated by the country to 24.
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/08/24/ukraines-future-f-16-fleet-just-got-a-lot-bigger/
- It took a year of determined diplomacy, but it’s finally happening. Ukraine is getting Lockheed Martin F-16 fighters. Lots of them.
- https://www.businessinsider.com/former-f-16-pilot-aircraft-no-fighting-chance-over-ukraine-2023-5
- The capable SAM systems "have proven extremely lethal" against Ukrainian aircraft and are the "primary killer" of Ukrainian jets, helicopters, and drones, the report notes. Fourth- and fourth-plus-generation fighter jets — like the F-16 — that lack stealth features are "completely outmatched in high-threat environments" because of advanced air-defense systems like Russia's S-400.
- https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-01-16/with-gods-eye-view-secretive-surveillance-flights-keep-close-watch-on-russia-and-ukraine
- As the second anniversary of Russia's Feb. 24, 2022, invasion of Ukraine nears, The Associated Press obtained rare and exclusive access aboard the giant Airborne Warning and Control System, or AWACS, aircraft. With 26 military personnel and an AP journalist aboard, it flew a 10-hour reconnaissance mission from central France to Romanian airspace and back, peering with electronic eyes across southern Ukraine and the Black Sea to Russian-occupied Crimea and beyond.
- https://www.wearethemighty.com/intel/airborne-warning-and-control-system-awacs/
- The truth is that shooting down an AWACS is going to be much harder than anyone might expect.
The Kinburn Campaign
- https://mind.ua/en/publications/20250307-mykolaiv-port-may-join-the-grain-corridor-what-does-it-take-and-what-would-it-bring-to-ukraine
- The second most important commercial harbour of the country has a chance to resume operations.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yahorlyk_Bay
- Yahorlyk Bay (Ukrainian: Ягорлицька затока) is a shallow water bay near the coast of Ukraine (between peninsulas Yahorlyk Kut and Kinburn peninsula), northern Black Sea.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinburn_Spit#2022_Russian_invasion
- During the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the spit was captured by Russian forces on 10 June 2022. Russia fortified the spit and used it as a site to deploy electronic warfare and coordinate missile and artillery attacks on nearby Ukrainian positions. Since Ukraine's 2022 Kherson counteroffensive that ended in November 2022, regained territory north of the spit has allowed Ukrainian forces to more frequently attempt amphibious landings on the spit to conduct reconnaissance for its potential recapture.
- https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-why-the-kinburn-spit-is-of-vital-military-significance-and-opens-up-the-recapture-of-crimea-195870
- By any normal military calculations any effort to cross the bay, take the Kinburn spit and advance onto the peninsula would be seen as utterly hopeless. An attempt at landing would not be expected to get beyond the opposite shore a few kilometres away, let alone get ashore and establish some kind of foothold. But these are not normal circumstances. As matters stand, Russian ground forces are in poor shape. They cannot be everywhere and moving forces from one area to defend or indeed deter attack at another is very difficult. Further, any Russian attempt to attack a Ukrainian beachhead on the Kinburn spit will get hammered by Ukrainian artillery on the opposite bank of the Dniepro.
- https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/DRONES/dwpkeyjwkpm/
- The war in Ukraine has been characterised by drone deployment of unprecedented scale, with thousands of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) used to track enemy forces, guide artillery and bomb targets.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_Weasel
- The Wild Weasel concept was developed by the USAF in 1965 during the Vietnam War after the introduction of Soviet SAMs and their downing of American strike aircraft participating in Operation Rolling Thunder in the skies over North Vietnam.
- https://www.slashgear.com/1370552/stuka-siren-ju-87-noise-explained/
- If you've seen director Christopher Nolan's movie 'Dunkirk,' you might recall the depiction of a Stuka attack on terrified troops waiting to be evacuated from the beaches. And if you remember the scene, you remember their sound — the otherworldly wail these planes made as they swooped down to release their bombs. That wail wasn't movie magic – in 1940, the Stuka really sounded like that. The Stuka's sirens (called "Jericho's Trumpets" by the Germans) served no practical purpose beyond adding to the terror experienced by its unfortunate victims.
- https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-blast-through-russian-minefields-ruud-vermeulen
- Thermobaric explosions, similar to accidental dust- or vapour cloud explosions, generate an intense shockwave, followed by a sustained fireball. These explosions create a combination of pressure and heat. The resulting shockwave can trigger buried mines, or the heat can render them inert.
- https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-war-kherson-left-bank-dnieper-river-foothold-1859359
- Ukraine has been launching regular raids across the Dnieper River following its successful liberation of the city of Kherson and the west bank of the river toward the end of 2022. Kyiv's troops reached the occupied side of the Dnieper in mid-October 2023 after extensive cross-river operations. In December, the Ukrainian General Staff said that its troops had continued ground operations on the left bank and were maintaining positions there from where they are striking at Russian forces.
- https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-dnieper-river-fe197bdd93119c29335162af1c8a8de4
- November 17, 2023 - Ukraine’s military said Friday its troops had secured multiple bridgeheads on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River in the Kherson region — a small but potentially significant strategic advance in the midst of a war largely at a standstill.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kherson_Oblast#Geography
- Kherson Oblast is bordered by Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to the north, the Black Sea and Crimea to the south, Mykolaiv Oblast to the west, and the Azov Sea and Zaporizhzhia Oblast to the east. The Dnieper River, which includes the Kakhovka Reservoir, runs through the oblast.
- https://www.newsweek.com/russian-troops-disappearing-kherson-ukraine-resistance-atesh-1889655
- A Ukrainian partisan movement operating in the occupied south of the country has reported mass desertions by Russian forces there, with Moscow's troops refusing to carry out combat missions.
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/01/25/ukraine-has-a-tiny-amphibious-force-with-a-very-dangerous-job/?sh=74658e193914
- The modern Ukrainian navy, however, has just one landing ship—the 52-year-old Yuri Olefirenko, a 240-foot Polnocny-class vessel that can haul 250 naval infantry or four tanks.
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/11/23/the-ukrainian-navy-still-has-one-big-amphibious-ship-shed-be-pretty-useful-right-about-now/?sh=55ae95af6329
- Assuming she’s still afloat—and there’s recent evidence she is—Yuri Olefirenko is in a position to support the ongoing Ukrainian amphibious operation on the Kinburn Spit, a three-mile finger of sand and scrub curling south to north across the mouth of the Dnipro River.
- https://www.dictionary.com/e/slang/gib/
- The delightful term gib comes from the equally delightful word giblets, referring the edible organs of a fowl, i.e., their guts. Gib, as it’s used in video games, similarly references someone’s insides. Gibs are the result of what gamers call an overkill or critical hit–they make a foe’s body parts explode in different directions.
- https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-has-a-new-weapon-and-it-could-prove-to-be-devastating-for-russia/ss-BB1nj2na
- Defence Blog also noted that there had been recent reports that Sea Baby’s fitted with a multiple rocket launch system were used to attack Russian positions on the Kinburn Spit, an area in Kherson Oblast currently under occupation.
The Center Line Hold
- https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/fleet-taxis-did-not-really-save-paris-germans-during-world-war-i-180952140/
- On the night of September 6, 1914, as the fate of France was hanging in the balance, a fleet of taxis drove under cover of darkness from Paris to the front lines of what would become known as the Battle of the Marne. Carrying reinforcements that turned the tide of battle against the Germans, the taxi drivers saved the city and demonstrated the sacred unity of the French people. At least, that’s the story.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bakhmut
- It is regarded by military analysts to be the bloodiest battle since the end of World War II.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Avdiivka_(2023%E2%80%932024)
- The battle for Avdiivka came to be known as the "second Bakhmut", or "Bakhmut 2.0", due to the similarities in battlefield conditions, Russian tactics, and reported casualty rates. It has been noted that Russian forces have lost more soldiers during the battle than during the entirety of the ten year Soviet–Afghan War.
- https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ghostly-city-how-russia-s-war-in-ukraine-is-taking-a-toll-on-its-own-belgorod-region/ar-AA1nlgmD
- The once-tranquil city of Belgorod, some 25 miles north of Russia’s border with Ukraine, has been transformed into a kind of ghost town, its eerie silence interrupted by the regular wail of missile warning sirens – a reminder that the war raging in neighboring Ukraine looms ever closer ... This is not how the city always looked. Describing her hometown of Belgorod pre-war, 25-year-old volunteer Natalia Izotova painted a charming picture. “It’s a small, cozy southern town with lots of trees and lots of greenery, which gets very hot in the summer,” she told CNN. “It’s such a quiet, tiny place where everyone simply lives their life and tries to change something for the better in every way they can.”
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belgorod#20th_and_21st_centuries
- There were several attacks and incidents reported in Belgorod following the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, during which Belgorod was an important logistics centre for Russian armies.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Belgorod_Oblast_incursions
- On 22 May 2023, armed groups from Ukraine carried out a cross-border raid into Belgorod Oblast.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_western_Russia_incursion
- On 12 March 2024, Ukrainian-backed Russian anti-government armed groups entered the territory of Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts in Russia from the territory of Ukraine.
- https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/15/fear-grips-russian-border-towns-amid-ukrainian-offensive-a78797
- Russians living in areas near the Ukrainian border are voicing growing concern as Kyiv’s counteroffensive around the northeastern city of Kharkiv has brought Ukrainian forces to Russia’s doorstep, according to posts on local social media groups.
- https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/27/europe/ukraine-air-defense-gepard-intl/index.html
- Because of Western donations, Ukraine now field a multi-layered air defense network capable of hitting short, medium and long range targets. The Gepard is the tip of the spear in an arsenal that now includes Franco-Italian SAMP/T, German Iris-T, as well as the American NASAMS and Patriot air defense systems, among others.
- https://maps.app.goo.gl/FPPTPvNJUgkAJRAf8
- From Belgorod, Belgorod Oblast, Russia to Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast, Russia. 1 hr 50 min to 2 hr 30 min (148 km) via 14?-3.
- https://maps.app.goo.gl/MiMCkAXoSMpAXYgf7
- From Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast, Russia to Roven'ki, Belgorod Oblast, Russia. 1 hr 10 min to 1 hr 25 min (86.5 km) via 14?-8.
- https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-army-base-sees-scramble-ukraine-war-supplies-some-locals-soldiers-say-2022-06-08/
- The Pentagon, in April briefings, said Russian troops were regrouping around Valuyki and were attempting to form the northern part of a pincer movement to reach other Russian forces approaching from the south and isolate the eastern Donbas region from the rest of Ukraine.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valuyki,_Belgorod_Oblast
- In early September 2015 Reuters reported that Russia was building a new army base "near Valuyki, a small town not far from Soloti." Established in connection with the war in Ukraine, the base was to have barracks for 3,500 soldiers. During the Russian invasion of Ukraine there were reports that Ukrainian artillery shelled the base of the Russian 3rd Motor Rifle Division in September 2022.
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/03/08/an-elite-russian-drone-group-is-hunting-ukrainian-vehicles-in-kursk-itll-take-more-than-a-few-mig-29-raids-to-blunt-the-russian-edge/
- As a result, “Ukrainian logistics in Kursk have suffered severe damage from drone attacks,” Perpetua explained. Rubicon has knocked out hundreds of Ukrainian vehicles—mostly supply trucks, but also precious M-2 Bradley fighting vehicles and MaxxPro armored trucks.
- https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/sky-shield-takes-flight-europe-s-air-power-push-in-ukraine/ar-AA1ASyEo
- Sky Shield is an initiative aimed at securing the skies over western Ukraine through the air forces of European NATO members. Implementing this plan will require the deployment of 120 combat aircraft.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tanks_of_the_Ukrainian_Army#Full-scale_Russian_invasion
- List of tanks in Ukrainian Army - Main Battle Tanks.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maginot_Line
- The Maginot Line (French: Ligne Maginot, IPA: [li? ma?ino]), named after the French Minister of War André Maginot, is a line of concrete fortifications, obstacles and weapon installations built by France in the 1930s to deter invasion by Nazi Germany and force them to move around the fortifications. It was impervious to most forms of attack; consequently, the Germans invaded through the Low Countries in 1940, passing it to the north.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ukrainian_counteroffensive
- The Ukrainian counteroffensive faced a dense net of Russian fortifications, minefields, and anti-tank ditches. Ukrainian officials have acknowledged that the offensive has been slowed by Russian minefields ... Retired Major General Mick Ryan told Reuters that the Russian minefields were similar to the Iraqi minefields during the 1991 Gulf War at 2-5 kilometres deep, numbering in the tens of thousands of mines, while Russian minefields in the south, might approach "hundreds of thousands at a minimum" according to Ryan.
- https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/biden-announces-us-will-send-31-abrams-tanks-ukraine-rcna67392
- The decision is a reversal for the Biden administration, which had been resisting pressure from Germany to send the tanks to Ukraine. U.S. officials previously insisted that Biden was not inclined to provide Abrams tanks because members of his national security team, including Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, did not believe they would be a net positive for the Ukrainians given how difficult they are to operate and maintain.
- https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-approves-shipments-f-16s-ukraine-major-gain-kiev-rcna100618
- The United States has given its approval for the Netherlands and Denmark to deliver F-16s to Ukraine, officials in Washington and Europe said Friday, in a major gain for Kyiv even though the fighter jets won’t have an impact any time soon on the almost 18-month war.
- https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-artillery-advantage-over-ukraine-will-double-in-weeks-general-2024-4
- Russia's military is currently firing five times as many shells as Ukraine is. In a matter of weeks, the ratio could shift to 10:1, Cavoli said.
- https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/10/18/a-potential-game-changer
- How the ATACMS differs from the other missiles in Ukraine’s arsenal.
- https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2023/07/21/how-two-new-munitions-could-affect-the-war-in-ukraine
- Ukraine has also asked for the ATACMS, but its request has not been granted ... But even if supplies were plentiful, the White House is also concerned about escalation. Ukraine promises it would not fire American weapons into Russia. Joe Biden, America’s president, is not yet convinced.
- https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/06/02/in-crimea-ukraine-is-beating-russia
- On April 17th an ATACMS strike on Dzhankoi airbase in the north-east of Crimea damaged helicopters, an s-400 battery and a command-and-control centre. A month later, on the evening of May 15th, a large-scale atacms strike on an airbase at Belbek near Sevastopol destroyed four planes as well as an s-400 air-defence radar and at least two launchers.
- https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-diverts-patriot-missiles-ordered-by-allies-to-ukraine/ar-BB1oAHKn
- The US is halting deliveries of key air defense missiles to allies, directing shipments to Ukraine instead in a bid to help bolster the country amid the continuing aerial barrage from Russia, the White House said.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction
- Mutual assured destruction (MAD) is a doctrine of military strategy and national security policy which posits that a full-scale use of nuclear weapons by an attacker on a nuclear-armed defender with second-strike capabilities would result in the complete annihilation of both the attacker and the defender.
- https://www.npr.org/2022/02/21/1082124528/ukraine-russia-putin-invasion
- Three decades ago, the newly independent country of Ukraine was briefly the third-largest nuclear power in the world. Thousands of nuclear arms had been left on Ukrainian soil by Moscow after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. But in the years that followed, Ukraine made the decision to completely denuclearize. In exchange, the U.S., the U.K. and Russia would guarantee Ukraine's security in a 1994 agreement known as the Budapest Memorandum.
- https://www.nytimes.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-timeline.html
- (2022) September - In a rapid offensive, Ukraine retook much of the northeastern Kharkiv region and seized the initiative in the war. Ukraine would recapture the eastern city of Lyman the next month ... November - Russian forces withdrew from the city of Kherson to the eastern side of the Dnipro River, a significant victory for Ukraine.
- https://www.bbc.com/news/world-63373637
- What is a ‘dirty bomb’ and why is Russia saying Ukraine could use one?
- https://www.csis.org/analysis/russian-nuclear-calibration-war-ukraine
- Russia’s nuclear signaling—its deliberate efforts to influence foreign decisionmaking through the implicit or explicit threat of nuclear use—is part of its wider strategy to deter direct Western intervention and support for Ukraine.
- https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/25/us/politics/biden-russia-ukraine-nuclear.html
- No one in the administration is arguing for a nuclear response. But among the options under debate are conventional military strikes on Russian forces inside Ukraine, likely executed by Ukrainian forces.
- https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-warns-russia-total-destruction-105500887.html
- Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski expressed skepticism about Russia's threats to use nuclear weapons, saying that the United States warned Russia it would destroy all its targets in Ukraine if they did so...
- https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-troops-surrender-to-an-elite-brigade-as-the-kharkiv-front-holds-ukraine-says/ar-BB1ojOcD
- Russian soldiers have been surrendering to an elite Ukrainian combat brigade in the northern town of Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region, reports say.
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