The Double-Victory Principle to End the War in Ukraine

Dated: 7/15/26

A double-victory peace framework that separates the war’s land and people dimensions could finally give both Ukraine and Russia a rationale to end the conflict.

Efforts to broker peace in the Russo-Ukrainian War have stalled. Operating without a shared diplomatic baseline, Kyiv and Moscow resort to a grinding war of attrition, each driven by the conviction that battlefield endurance will eventually yield victory. Yet the battlefield has hardened into a costly stalemate with no apparent winner. The CURD Plan breaks this lethal deadlock by advancing an unconventional framework. Fundamentally separating the war's "land" aspect from its "people" dimension allows both sides to declare victory and end the war.

To understand the double-victory rationale, one must first diagnose what drives the war. Putin's 2022 invasion was not a traditional imperial land grab; it was an ideological campaign to draw Ukraine into a Slavic Orthodox "living space". This oft-repeated (but fabricated) prophecy ― "Just as the One Lord God is the indivisible Holy Trinity of Father, Son, and Holy Spirit, so Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus together are Holy Rus' and cannot be separated" is what drives Putin first to corral the Ukrainians by force, and, hypothetically, to absorb the Belarusians through annexation afterward. From the onset, his vision meets the fierce resolve of Ukrainians for their independence.

The CURD Plan (Crimea, Ukraine, Russia, and Donbas as a stand-in for eastern Ukraine) presents a comprehensive 18-point peace framework based on the double-victory principle. Ukraine's victory centers on "land" with full restoration of its pre-2014 territory. Russia's victory focuses on "people", creating the Russophile "living spaces" in the currently occupied territories, regardless of which sovereignty they end up belonging to.

The CURD Plan begins with a unique legal transaction. First, Russia declares Ukraine's undisputed sovereignty over Crimea. Then, as its legal owner, Kyiv willingly sells the peninsula back to Moscow for a symbolic price. By agreeing to purchase a territory it has de facto control, Russia gains indisputable de jure ownership. The Crimea transaction is Ukraine's "people" concession to Russia, given the peninsula's Russophile super-majority and the prevailing conviction among the Russian people that Crimea is inherently part of Mother Russia.

Simultaneously, the Plan requires Russia to withdraw from mainland Ukraine and rescind all annexations. This is Russia's "land" concession to Ukraine for the Crimea transaction. Regarding the Russian-passport-carrying separatists, Ukraine will establish a constitutional "native residency" status, granting them the same local rights and protections as Ukrainian citizens, but without national voting powers. This is Ukraine's "people" concession to Russia for the restored sovereignty over eastern Ukraine. In reciprocity, Russia will create a corresponding native-residency program in Crimea for the indigenous Tatars loyal to Kyiv.

The Plan's 18 points address other normalization issues, such as the trials of war criminals, the release of prisoners, the return of the displaced, the restoration of Ukrainian-Crimean economic ties, maritime passage through the Kerch Strait, a joint demining corps, pipeline revitalization, Ukrainian reconstruction tied to restituted Russian frozen funds, compensation for lost and damaged assets, Ukraine's relations with its neighbors, and sanction removal on Russia. Each point contains reciprocal concessions for both sides to find a winning stake in the proposal.

The CURD Book details the CURD Plan and goes beyond the Plan's focus on ending the war: it envisions a post-war future for the two antagonists. For Ukraine, it will be "engaged neutralism" where Ukraine secures its sovereignty and territories by being a buffer country engaged with both the East and West rather than a frontier state aligned with one side ― dependent on its protection and entangled in its conflicts.

For Russia, the Book accommodates Putin's Holy Rus' vision — but with a major difference: it strips the "land" factor that provokes patriotic resistance and retains only the "people" component. The Book goes beyond the triunity of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus and stipulates a benevolent Holy Rus' that spans countries from the Baltic to the Caucasus and beyond, wherever there are ethnic Russian communities. By renouncing any form of "land" conquest in word and deed, and by reaffirming adherence to sovereignty and territorial integrity, Putin can build credibility with neighboring governments to permit a benevolent ministration of the Russian diaspora.

A new Russia will emerge, its power resting on land — not land taken from others, but from the vast territory Russia possesses: Siberia. Instead of continuing a conflict that already costs upward of $200 billion, Moscow could direct future resources toward transforming Siberia into an economic cradle. The Book outlines ambitious initiatives such as a high-speed Trans-Siberian rail that would cut freight transport between East Asia and Europe from months by sea to days by land. Along this corridor, hyperscale data centers would capitalize on Siberia's abundant land, energy resources, and naturally cold climate. Russia does not need more land; it already has all the land it needs to be a powerhouse of the 21st century.

The Book merges the Holy Rus' revision with the Siberian potential. Moscow would open the Siberian initiatives to global investment, offering neighboring states preferential terms to reestablish friendly relations and economic ties. With territorial imperialism banished from Moscow's diplomacy, the Russian diaspora in those states could finally shed their stigma of suspected fifth columns and become the constructive bridge to the opportunities of the new Russia. Moscow would grant the Holy Rus' ethnic Russians priority access to these opportunities, elevating them as essential partners in their countries. For Ukraine, the Russophile native residents will be a strategic asset: they open economic doors into Russia, strengthening bilateral trade and reinforcing Ukraine's unique engaged neutralism.

By adopting the CURD Plan's double-victory principle, Ukraine and Russia would finally have a shared diplomatic basis for a ceasefire and peace negotiation. President Zelensky would be remembered as the savior of Ukraine — the leader who stayed behind to lead the country to territorial integrity. President Putin could claim a place among Russia's "Greats", not for ending a war he began, but for being the father of new Russia — one that rises from a people-oriented Holy Rus' respectful of national borders. It is "Russian World" (Russkiy Mir) but turned upside down, with Moscow serving the people, not the other way around.

Author

Doc Ngu is a geopolitical strategist and the author of the Frog-In-The-Well Solution book series, which outlines structural frameworks for resolving regional conflicts. For more information, please visit his website, words.docngu.net.

References

False “prophecies” as justification for the war: Sectarian hoaxes by Moscow Patriarch Kirill
orthodoxtimes.com/false-prophecies-as-justification-for-the-war-sectarian-hoaxes-by-moscow-patriarch-kirill/
... behind these words of the Moscow patriarch lies a banal lie and falsification, because St. Lawrence of Chernigov never said these words.

Russian World
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_world
The "Russian world" (Russian: русский мир, romanized: rússkiy mir) is a concept and a political doctrine usually defined as the sphere of military, political and cultural influence of Russia.