REVIEW: Territory On The Kerch Peninsula

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Summary

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This section explores Ukraine’s strategic interests in the **Kerch Strait** and outlines scenarios under the **CUTTR Plan** for retaining limited territorial control—critical for national pride and maritime access, even if Crimea is sold.

**Kerch Strait: Ukraine’s Vital Gateway**
- The **Sea of Azov** is economically and militarily key to Ukraine.
- Its **only outlet**, the Kerch Strait, becomes wholly Russian if Ukraine sells **Crimea (and Kerch Peninsula)**.
- Ukraine seeks a new agreement to ensure **unimpeded transit**—but Russia has a record of **ignoring treaties** when inconvenient.

**Historical Example of Diversion Tactics**
- In April 2021, amid growing domestic protests, Russia:
  - Massed troops near Ukraine’s border
  - Closed the Kerch Strait to trap Ukrainian vessels
- The timing aligned with unrest over a jailed opposition figure—suggesting political theater more than military necessity.

**Four Plans for Retaining Kerch Access**
| **Plan** | **Description** | **Russian Reaction** |
|----------|------------------|----------------------|
| Plan A | Ukraine keeps the **entire Kerch Peninsula** | Highly unlikely; Russia wants full control of the Kerch Bridge |
| Plan B | Ukraine retains **eastern shoreline areas** near the strait | Some compromise possible |
| Plan C | Ukraine keeps **Tuzla Island** in the strait | More flexible, symbolic retention |
| Plan D | Ukraine retains **observation posts** along the strait | Most palatable to Russia; low strategic impact |

 **Symbolism vs. Power**
- Observation posts offer **minimal military value**, but **huge symbolic significance**.
- Ukraine affirms **national dignity and agency** in the deal.
- Russia may **tolerate minor concessions** in exchange for:
  - **Legal ownership of Crimea**
  - **Lifting of Western sanctions**

This balancing act echoes broader themes in territorial diplomacy—how strategic compromises and symbolic wins shape post-conflict legacy. 

References

See Territory On The Kerch Peninsula.