REVIEW: New Natural Gas Agreement

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Summary

This AI summary is generated by Microsoft Edge Copilot:

This passage unpacks the complicated, often contentious natural gas relationship between **Russia and Ukraine**, and proposes a three-part framework under the **CUTTR Plan** to settle disputes and reset the energy dynamics tied to the Crimea transaction.

**Historical Drama Over Gas**
- **Russia** supplies vast amounts of gas to the **EU**, mostly through **Ukrainian pipelines**, once accounting for 80% of all transit.
- **Ukraine** earned ~$3B annually in transit fees and also relied heavily on discounted Russian gas for domestic needs.
- Although Ukraine has its own gas reserves, they fall short of demand—especially during winter.
- The relationship has long been riddled with **price manipulations, contractual disputes, and alleged corruption**, triggering lawsuits and retaliatory shutoffs from both sides.

**Recurring Cycle of Conflict**
1. Ukraine gets gas discounts to keep pipelines open and renew fleet leases.
2. Ukraine siphons gas → Russia sues.
3. Ukraine signs purchase agreement → recession hits → Ukraine reneges → Russia sues.
4. Ukraine courts EU → Russia cuts supply → Ukraine sues.
5. Both sides meet, sign deals → more lawsuits.

Even 2013’s “act of brotherly love” gas deal was riddled with dysfunction.

**CUTTR Plan Provisions (Natural Gas Component)**

**Point 1: Resolve Current Disputes in Ukraine’s Favor**
- Not about fault—just a **peace cost** Russia pays to legitimize Crimea’s purchase.
- Clears historical grievances without impacting future claims.

**Point 2: Restore Discounted Gas Sales to Ukraine**
- Ukraine gets cheaper imports.
- Russia gains a loyal customer and a method to offload surplus gas post–COVID slump.
- Terms (volume, rate, duration) to be negotiated separately.

**Point 3: Guarantee Minimum Transit Volumes through Ukraine**
- Ukraine receives contractual assurance that gas will still flow through its pipelines.
- In return, Ukraine ends lobbying against **Nord Stream 2**—Russia’s Baltic Sea pipeline to Germany.

 **Looking Ahead**
- With Crimea’s legal status settled, **U.S. sanctions** on Nord Stream 2 would lift, unblocking its completion.
- Ukraine’s pipeline future could involve transitioning to **hydrogen transport**, though Russia’s “brown hydrogen” would raise **environmental concerns** within the EU.

This section blends geopolitics, energy economics, and long-term climate strategy—all tied to a potential peace framework. 

References

See New Natural Gas Agreement.